Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.2%
Barcelona
21.1%
Draw
16.8%
Ath Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
2.08
Barcelona
vs
0.99
Ath Madrid
Markets
BTTS55.3%
Over 0.595.0%
Over 1.581.4%
Over 2.559.2%
Over 3.536.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.9%
1-0
9.3%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.0%
2-2
4.9%
1-2
4.7%
0-1
4.3%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).