Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.1%
Benfica
15.2%
Draw
4.7%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
2.31
Benfica
vs
0.41
Farense
Markets
BTTS30.7%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.575.9%
Over 2.551.2%
Over 3.529.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.6%
1-0
14.8%
3-0
13.5%
4-0
7.8%
2-1
7.2%
0-0
6.9%
1-1
6.6%
3-1
5.6%
5-0
3.6%
4-1
3.2%
0-1
2.3%
5-1
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).