Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →13.8%
Sheffield Wednesday
23.9%
Draw
62.3%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.75
Sheffield Wednesday
vs
1.83
Derby
Markets
BTTS45.1%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.573.7%
Over 2.547.7%
Over 3.526.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.0%
0-2
12.7%
1-1
11.3%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
8.5%
0-3
7.8%
1-3
5.8%
1-0
4.8%
2-1
3.9%
2-2
3.6%
0-4
3.6%
1-4
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).