Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.9%
Notts County
22.4%
Draw
17.6%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.75
Notts County
vs
0.82
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS45.6%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.572.1%
Over 2.547.2%
Over 3.525.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.9%
2-0
11.8%
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
7.3%
3-0
6.8%
0-1
6.7%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
4.5%
2-2
3.9%
4-0
3.0%
0-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).