Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.6%
Parma
31.4%
Draw
32.0%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.99
Parma
vs
0.90
Spal
Markets
BTTS37.1%
Over 0.585.2%
Over 1.556.2%
Over 2.529.4%
Over 3.512.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.1%
0-0
14.8%
0-1
13.8%
1-1
13.2%
2-0
7.4%
2-1
6.7%
0-2
6.1%
1-2
6.1%
2-2
3.0%
3-0
2.4%
3-1
2.2%
0-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).