Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.8%
Aston Villa
28.7%
Draw
31.5%
Newcastle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Aston Villa
vs
1.29
Newcastle
Markets
BTTS57.5%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.577.9%
Over 2.552.2%
Over 3.530.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
7.6%
2-0
6.8%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
0-2
5.2%
3-1
4.3%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).