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24 Aug 2024 · 13:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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71.8%
Lorient
16.6%
Draw
11.6%
Grenoble

Expected Goals (xG)

2.20

Lorient

vs
0.73

Grenoble

Markets

BTTS45.4%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.578.4%
Over 2.556.2%
Over 3.533.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
12.9%
1-0
12.4%
3-0
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
1-1
7.9%
3-1
6.9%
4-0
5.2%
0-0
4.6%
0-1
4.6%
4-1
3.8%
2-2
3.4%
1-2
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).