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17 Aug 2024 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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43.2%
Cambridge
22.6%
Draw
34.3%
Crawley Town

Expected Goals (xG)

1.57

Cambridge

vs
1.37

Crawley Town

Markets

BTTS58.0%
Over 0.595.6%
Over 1.578.1%
Over 2.556.2%
Over 3.533.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
10.4%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
0-2
5.0%
3-1
4.7%
0-0
4.4%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).