Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.3%
Santa Clara
32.2%
Draw
28.4%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.13
Santa Clara
vs
0.92
Nacional
Markets
BTTS41.7%
Over 0.586.1%
Over 1.561.8%
Over 2.533.7%
Over 3.515.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.4%
0-0
13.9%
1-0
13.5%
0-1
10.8%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
3.5%
3-0
3.1%
3-1
2.8%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).