Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.9%
Valladolid
25.3%
Draw
29.8%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.50
Valladolid
vs
1.17
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS53.6%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.574.6%
Over 2.550.1%
Over 3.528.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
8.2%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.8%
2-2
5.4%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
4.6%
3-0
3.9%
1-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).