Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.5%
Villarreal
21.6%
Draw
48.9%
Barcelona
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Villarreal
vs
2.05
Barcelona
Markets
BTTS69.1%
Over 0.597.1%
Over 1.587.8%
Over 2.570.0%
Over 3.548.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
8.8%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
6.9%
2-1
6.8%
1-3
6.1%
0-2
5.6%
0-1
5.3%
2-3
4.7%
1-0
4.0%
0-3
3.9%
3-2
3.6%
3-1
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).