Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.6%
Villarreal B
27.9%
Draw
18.5%
Ferrol
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Villarreal B
vs
0.67
Ferrol
Markets
BTTS36.0%
Over 0.586.9%
Over 1.559.9%
Over 2.533.0%
Over 3.514.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.1%
0-0
13.1%
2-0
12.2%
1-1
11.8%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.1%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
4.0%
3-1
3.7%
0-2
2.9%
2-2
2.7%
4-0
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).