Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.4%
Newport County
25.4%
Draw
46.2%
Gillingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.07
Newport County
vs
1.44
Gillingham
Markets
BTTS49.6%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.571.0%
Over 2.545.9%
Over 3.524.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.2%
1-1
12.0%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
9.0%
0-2
8.5%
0-0
7.6%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
4.8%
2-0
4.6%
1-3
4.3%
0-3
4.1%
3-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).