Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.5%
Modena
26.8%
Draw
16.7%
Crotone
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
Modena
vs
0.79
Crotone
Markets
BTTS45.0%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.570.8%
Over 2.543.7%
Over 3.522.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.4%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
11.9%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
6.5%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.1%
1-2
4.5%
2-2
3.7%
0-2
2.7%
4-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).