Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.1%
Spezia
30.2%
Draw
30.7%
Perugia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.28
Spezia
vs
1.10
Perugia
Markets
BTTS49.6%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.570.1%
Over 2.542.6%
Over 3.521.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.5%
1-0
10.5%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.3%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
3.6%
3-0
3.2%
1-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).