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DHT: 10

11 Aug 2025 · 17:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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70.2%
Estoril
17.0%
Draw
12.8%
Estrela

Expected Goals (xG)

2.64

Estoril

vs
1.08

Estrela

Markets

BTTS61.9%
Over 0.597.2%
Over 1.589.1%
Over 2.571.9%
Over 3.551.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
8.0%
3-0
7.4%
1-1
7.3%
1-0
5.9%
4-1
5.3%
2-2
4.9%
4-0
4.9%
3-2
4.4%
1-2
3.7%
4-2
2.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).