Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.8%
Burgos
29.5%
Draw
31.7%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Burgos
vs
0.99
Malaga
Markets
BTTS42.2%
Over 0.588.0%
Over 1.562.2%
Over 2.535.4%
Over 3.516.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.7%
1-1
13.3%
0-1
12.1%
0-0
12.0%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
3.7%
3-0
2.9%
3-1
2.8%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).