Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.3%
Alfreton Town
25.6%
Draw
50.2%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.94
Alfreton Town
vs
1.48
Spal
Markets
BTTS46.5%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.569.0%
Over 2.543.3%
Over 3.522.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.6%
1-1
12.0%
0-2
9.8%
1-2
9.1%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
8.6%
2-1
5.8%
0-3
4.8%
1-3
4.5%
2-2
4.3%
2-0
3.9%
2-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).