Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →17.9%
Newport County
23.1%
Draw
59.0%
Exeter
Expected Goals (xG)
0.79
Newport County
vs
1.68
Exeter
Markets
BTTS44.2%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.570.4%
Over 2.545.0%
Over 3.523.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.6%
0-2
11.9%
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.4%
0-0
8.0%
1-0
7.1%
0-3
6.7%
1-3
5.3%
2-1
4.5%
2-2
3.8%
0-4
2.8%
2-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).