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DHT: 11CSV

27 Oct 2024 · 20:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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32.0%
Estrela
25.6%
Draw
42.4%
Guimaraes

Expected Goals (xG)

1.15

Estrela

vs
1.37

Guimaraes

Markets

BTTS50.4%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.571.1%
Over 2.546.1%
Over 3.524.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.1%
0-1
11.6%
1-0
9.8%
1-2
8.7%
0-2
7.5%
0-0
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.3%
2-2
5.0%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.4%
3-1
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).