Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →21.8%
Alcorcon
24.8%
Draw
53.5%
Castellon
Expected Goals (xG)
0.92
Alcorcon
vs
1.60
Castellon
Markets
BTTS48.0%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.571.7%
Over 2.546.3%
Over 3.524.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.0%
1-1
11.7%
0-2
10.3%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
7.9%
1-0
7.5%
0-3
5.5%
2-1
5.5%
1-3
5.1%
2-2
4.4%
2-0
3.4%
2-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).