Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →85.5%
Sp Lisbon
10.8%
Draw
3.7%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
2.63
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.37
Farense
Markets
BTTS28.7%
Over 0.595.2%
Over 1.579.9%
Over 2.557.7%
Over 3.535.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.2%
3-0
15.0%
1-0
13.3%
4-0
9.9%
2-1
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
5-0
5.2%
0-0
4.8%
1-1
4.7%
4-1
3.7%
0-1
2.1%
5-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).