Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.2%
Arsenal
25.2%
Draw
14.5%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Arsenal
vs
0.81
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS48.0%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.575.5%
Over 2.549.1%
Over 3.527.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
2-0
12.0%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.3%
1-2
4.3%
2-2
3.9%
4-0
3.4%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).