Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.3%
Derby
29.4%
Draw
30.3%
Brentford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.30
Derby
vs
1.09
Brentford
Markets
BTTS49.3%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.570.0%
Over 2.542.9%
Over 3.522.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
10.1%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
3.7%
3-0
3.3%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).