Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.3%
Real Madrid
19.5%
Draw
16.2%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
2.25
Real Madrid
vs
1.05
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS58.4%
Over 0.596.1%
Over 1.584.4%
Over 2.564.1%
Over 3.542.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.3%
1-1
8.9%
1-0
8.1%
3-1
7.4%
3-0
7.0%
2-2
5.1%
1-2
4.6%
4-1
4.1%
4-0
3.9%
3-2
3.9%
0-0
3.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).