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10 Jan 2026 · 15:15

Alaves

Away

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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65.9%
Villarreal
21.4%
Draw
12.7%
Alaves

Expected Goals (xG)

1.91

Villarreal

vs
0.70

Alaves

Markets

BTTS43.1%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.573.7%
Over 2.548.4%
Over 3.526.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
13.8%
2-0
13.4%
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.5%
0-0
7.6%
3-1
6.0%
0-1
4.9%
4-0
4.1%
1-2
3.4%
2-2
3.3%
4-1
2.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).