Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.3%
Aston Villa
23.0%
Draw
15.8%
Burnley
Expected Goals (xG)
2.09
Aston Villa
vs
0.99
Burnley
Markets
BTTS56.5%
Over 0.594.1%
Over 1.582.6%
Over 2.559.5%
Over 3.537.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.8%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.3%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.9%
2-2
4.9%
1-2
4.7%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
3.6%
3-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).