Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →10.7%
Nacional
24.3%
Draw
65.0%
Porto
Expected Goals (xG)
0.55
Nacional
vs
1.71
Porto
Markets
BTTS35.4%
Over 0.588.8%
Over 1.566.8%
Over 2.539.4%
Over 3.519.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.1%
0-2
15.3%
0-0
11.2%
1-1
10.6%
0-3
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
1-0
5.0%
1-3
4.8%
0-4
3.7%
2-1
2.7%
2-2
2.3%
1-4
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).