Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.5%
Derby
19.0%
Draw
10.5%
Northampton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87
Derby
vs
0.53
Northampton
Markets
BTTS34.2%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.568.5%
Over 2.543.2%
Over 3.522.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.7%
2-0
15.8%
3-0
9.9%
2-1
8.4%
0-0
8.3%
1-1
8.3%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
5.3%
4-0
4.6%
4-1
2.5%
1-2
2.4%
2-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).