Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.2%
Swindon
23.9%
Draw
24.0%
Accrington
Expected Goals (xG)
1.61
Swindon
vs
1.00
Accrington
Markets
BTTS50.0%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.572.9%
Over 2.548.4%
Over 3.526.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.4%
1-1
11.3%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.5%
0-1
7.9%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.1%
3-1
5.1%
2-2
4.8%
0-2
3.7%
3-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).