Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.5%
Hamburg
33.7%
Draw
21.8%
St Pauli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.11
Hamburg
vs
0.69
St Pauli
Markets
BTTS34.5%
Over 0.582.6%
Over 1.554.8%
Over 2.527.1%
Over 3.511.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
17.4%
1-0
17.3%
1-1
13.6%
0-1
10.4%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
4.4%
0-2
3.9%
3-0
3.8%
3-1
2.6%
2-2
2.4%
4-0
1.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).