Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →95.9%
Manchester City
2.4%
Draw
1.7%
Exeter
Expected Goals (xG)
7.39
Manchester City
vs
1.72
Exeter
Markets
BTTS82.1%
Over 0.5100.0%
Over 1.599.9%
Over 2.599.3%
Over 3.597.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
5-1
4.0%
5-2
3.4%
4-1
2.7%
4-2
2.3%
5-0
2.3%
5-3
2.0%
4-0
1.6%
3-1
1.5%
4-3
1.3%
3-2
1.3%
5-4
0.9%
3-0
0.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).