Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.1%
Famalicao
24.3%
Draw
16.6%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.82
Famalicao
vs
0.86
Arouca
Markets
BTTS49.3%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.550.3%
Over 3.528.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.6%
1-1
11.6%
2-0
11.3%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.7%
3-0
6.9%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
5.1%
1-2
4.6%
2-2
4.2%
4-0
3.1%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).