Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.2%
Nacional
23.9%
Draw
21.8%
Maritimo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.61
Nacional
vs
0.91
Maritimo
Markets
BTTS47.2%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.571.1%
Over 2.546.0%
Over 3.524.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.5%
1-1
11.3%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.5%
0-1
7.9%
0-0
7.6%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.4%
3-1
5.1%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
3.3%
3-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).