Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.5%
Moreirense
21.4%
Draw
16.1%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Moreirense
vs
0.79
Chaves
Markets
BTTS45.3%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.573.1%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.8%
2-0
12.2%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
7.4%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
4.1%
2-2
3.8%
4-0
3.4%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).