Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.0%
Swindon
18.6%
Draw
14.3%
Morecambe
Expected Goals (xG)
2.14
Swindon
vs
0.86
Morecambe
Markets
BTTS50.6%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.579.7%
Over 2.557.7%
Over 3.535.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.4%
1-0
11.0%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
8.8%
3-0
8.1%
3-1
7.0%
0-1
4.7%
0-0
4.6%
4-0
4.3%
2-2
4.2%
1-2
4.0%
4-1
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).