Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.6%
Mainz
32.3%
Draw
26.2%
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Mainz
vs
0.86
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Markets
BTTS40.4%
Over 0.585.6%
Over 1.560.7%
Over 2.532.7%
Over 3.514.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.4%
0-0
14.4%
1-1
14.2%
0-1
10.5%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
4.9%
3-0
3.4%
2-2
3.3%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).