Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.8%
Real Madrid
24.0%
Draw
19.2%
Ath Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.74
Real Madrid
vs
0.91
Ath Madrid
Markets
BTTS49.4%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.574.4%
Over 2.549.3%
Over 3.527.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.1%
1-1
11.4%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
7.3%
3-0
6.2%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
5.1%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
2.9%
4-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).