Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →7.1%
Forest Green
16.1%
Draw
76.8%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.43
Forest Green
vs
2.07
Derby
Markets
BTTS29.7%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.570.5%
Over 2.545.4%
Over 3.524.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.7%
0-2
17.7%
0-3
12.2%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
7.5%
1-1
6.7%
0-4
6.3%
1-3
5.2%
1-0
4.1%
1-4
2.7%
0-5
2.6%
2-2
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).