Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.7%
Aston Villa
33.2%
Draw
22.1%
Sunderland
Expected Goals (xG)
1.23
Aston Villa
vs
0.79
Sunderland
Markets
BTTS40.6%
Over 0.585.0%
Over 1.561.9%
Over 2.533.0%
Over 3.514.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
15.0%
1-1
14.7%
1-0
14.5%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.1%
0-2
4.2%
3-0
4.1%
3-1
3.3%
2-2
3.2%
1-3
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).