Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.7%
Derby
27.8%
Draw
26.5%
Birmingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.50
Derby
vs
1.09
Birmingham
Markets
BTTS52.7%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.574.2%
Over 2.548.1%
Over 3.526.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.5%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.0%
3-1
4.6%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.2%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).