Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.6%
Alverca
34.5%
Draw
33.9%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
0.90
Alverca
vs
0.94
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS37.3%
Over 0.583.1%
Over 1.556.0%
Over 2.528.1%
Over 3.511.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
16.9%
1-1
14.5%
0-1
13.9%
1-0
13.2%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
6.4%
1-2
6.3%
2-1
6.0%
2-2
2.9%
0-3
2.2%
1-3
2.0%
3-0
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).