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DHT: 10

21 Feb 2026 · 15:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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31.6%
Alverca
34.5%
Draw
33.9%
Santa Clara

Expected Goals (xG)

0.90

Alverca

vs
0.94

Santa Clara

Markets

BTTS37.3%
Over 0.583.1%
Over 1.556.0%
Over 2.528.1%
Over 3.511.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-0
16.9%
1-1
14.5%
0-1
13.9%
1-0
13.2%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
6.4%
1-2
6.3%
2-1
6.0%
2-2
2.9%
0-3
2.2%
1-3
2.0%
3-0
1.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).