Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →6.6%
Estrela
18.7%
Draw
74.7%
Porto
Expected Goals (xG)
0.47
Estrela
vs
2.08
Porto
Markets
BTTS33.6%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.573.0%
Over 2.547.1%
Over 3.525.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
16.8%
0-1
15.6%
0-3
11.7%
0-0
8.4%
1-1
8.2%
1-2
8.0%
0-4
6.1%
1-3
5.5%
1-0
3.1%
1-4
2.9%
0-5
2.5%
2-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).