⚽ FootballData
2 – 2
DHT: 01CSV

17 Mar 2018

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
41.9%
Port Vale
29.1%
Draw
29.0%
Stevenage

Expected Goals (xG)

1.14

Port Vale

vs
0.90

Stevenage

Markets

BTTS39.8%
Over 0.587.5%
Over 1.559.9%
Over 2.533.4%
Over 3.515.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
15.4%
1-1
12.8%
0-0
12.5%
0-1
12.2%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
5.2%
2-2
3.4%
3-0
3.2%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
1.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).