Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →87.8%
Benfica
9.2%
Draw
2.9%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
3.17
Benfica
vs
0.51
Estrela
Markets
BTTS38.4%
Over 0.597.1%
Over 1.588.4%
Over 2.571.0%
Over 3.550.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
13.5%
2-0
12.7%
4-0
10.6%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
6.8%
5-0
6.7%
2-1
6.5%
4-1
5.4%
1-1
4.4%
5-1
3.4%
0-0
2.9%
3-2
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).