Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.4%
Stevenage
24.7%
Draw
18.0%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Stevenage
vs
0.73
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS40.2%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.565.8%
Over 2.539.6%
Over 3.519.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.4%
2-0
12.3%
1-1
11.1%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
8.0%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
4.6%
1-2
4.2%
2-2
3.2%
0-2
2.7%
4-0
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).