Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.2%
Elche
28.0%
Draw
30.9%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Elche
vs
1.10
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS49.0%
Over 0.590.7%
Over 1.569.6%
Over 2.543.3%
Over 3.522.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
1-0
11.5%
0-1
9.6%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
3.7%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).