Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.6%
Santa Clara
29.2%
Draw
20.2%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.22
Santa Clara
vs
0.65
Chaves
Markets
BTTS33.0%
Over 0.585.1%
Over 1.555.1%
Over 2.528.7%
Over 3.512.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.4%
0-0
14.9%
1-1
11.7%
2-0
11.5%
0-1
10.5%
2-1
7.4%
3-0
4.7%
1-2
3.9%
0-2
3.2%
3-1
3.0%
2-2
2.4%
4-0
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).