Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.3%
Nottingham Forest
32.0%
Draw
39.7%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.02
Nottingham Forest
vs
1.25
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS47.5%
Over 0.587.9%
Over 1.568.1%
Over 2.539.6%
Over 3.519.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
15.0%
0-0
12.1%
0-1
11.1%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.2%
0-2
8.1%
2-1
6.7%
2-0
5.4%
2-2
4.2%
1-3
3.4%
0-3
3.4%
3-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).