Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.0%
Napoli
22.5%
Draw
12.5%
Lecce
Expected Goals (xG)
1.72
Napoli
vs
0.59
Lecce
Markets
BTTS36.6%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.567.1%
Over 2.540.8%
Over 3.520.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.2%
2-0
14.6%
1-1
9.9%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
8.7%
3-0
8.4%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.0%
4-0
3.6%
1-2
3.0%
2-2
2.6%
4-1
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).